On September 26, 2023, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve unanimously agreed to raise the interest rate by 25 basis points, establishing the federal funds target rate range between 2% and 2.25%. This move marks the highest rate since 2008 and aligns with market expectationsThe decision to hike rates was largely anticipated, illustrating the Fed's commitment to its established monetary policy trajectory.

In recent discussions, I had underlined that the likelihood of a rate increase in late September was unequivocal, with no doubts hanging in the balanceThis sentiment was echoed despite my personal stance as a proponent of low-interest policies, which I expressed with some dissatisfaction regarding the Fed's decisionsNonetheless, I maintained a level of respect for the Fed’s authority.

Under Jerome Powell's leadership, the Fed has implemented this incremental rate hike while adhering to its personalized financial governance structure

Since raising rates for the first time in December 2015, the Fed has executed a total of eight rate hikesIn my view, the Federal Reserve has successfully navigated the intricate relationship between the United States' economic condition and its monetary policyThe timing and frequency of these increases have been deftly managed, exemplifying a prudent approach to raising interest rates.

Firstly, the impact of the rate hike on economic growth has been minimal, allowing the U.Seconomy to continue its robust recoveryWith a significant tax reduction initiative in place, the Fed managed to prevent overheating in the economy through these rate adjustmentsThis immaculate handling of monetary tightening saw no adverse effects on the nation’s economic stabilityIn fact, it has seemingly catalyzed a steady growth trajectory—something that many consider a miracle produced by the Fed.

Another commendable achievement revolves around inflation monitoring

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The Fed has effectively kept inflation rates hovering around the 2% mark despite the ongoing rate hikesThis accomplishment underscores its role in shaping not only the economic landscape but also the nationwide perception concerning inflation management.

The astonishing combination of high growth figures, low inflation metrics, and minimal unemployment rates transpired only after the Fed's aggressive shift in monetary policy towards increasesThis transformation bears testament to the critical role that the FOMC has played in this economic renaissance.

It is worth noting that, surprisingly, the U.Sstock market remained unaffected by these eight consecutive rate hikes, even witnessing an upward trend insteadThis anomaly is intriguing and could be classified as another remarkable feat under Powell's stewardship.

The interest rate decision serves as a double-edged sword

On one side, economic theory suggests that rising interest rates typically lead to declining stock pricesConversely, higher rates could indicate an improving economyThe Fed seems to lean towards the latter perspective; Powell has consistently asserted that the American economy is experiencing robust growth.

The outcomes of the Fed's decisions have validated its predictive capabilities, achieving set objectives effectivelyWhile the U.Sstock market experienced low fluctuations post-rate hike, the U.Sdollar strengthened, leading to a notable drop in gold prices.

On September 27, although the Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded marginal gains, it is essential to acknowledge that these developments occurred within the context of rising interest rates and their anticipated consequencesThe Nasdaq's increase, despite significant losses on Tesla, reflects the underlying resilience of U.S

equities— fulfilling the Fed's aim to provide assurance to the market.

The backbone of these trends is undoubtedly supported by strong economic dataRecent figures indicate a 4.2% annualized quarterly GDP growth for Q2, propelled largely by a $1.5 trillion tax cut that invigorated consumer spendingSuch robust outcomes render it almost impossible for the stock market not to thrive.

Nonetheless, the Fed's interest rate hikes pose substantial risks to other regional markets, particularly the emerging marketsThe adverse reactions in these stock markets serve as a clear indication of the challenges facing those economiesInvestors are advised to stay informed about developments in the U.Sstock markets as well as those in Europe and Japan, while prudently stepping back from emerging market equities.

Furthermore, the Fed's rate increases deliver considerable headwinds to precious metals like gold

The global gold price already demonstrated a reaction on September 27, with a decline of $10, signaling a likely continuation of this downward trend.

The implications of rising interest rates cast a dark shadow over the real estate markets in emerging economiesThe Fed’s monetary policy results in a stronger dollar, which amplifies outflows of capital from these regionsThis could potentially destabilize real estate financing, thereby heightening the risk of disintegration in property investment networks.

Emerging market currencies face significant depreciation pressures from the Fed’s actionsAs the dollar strengthens, the depreciation of these currencies intensifies, eliciting heightened currency exchange risks and provoking systemic financial risks.

Looking ahead, insights can be gleaned from the Fed's latest reportsThe omission of the phrase “accommodative monetary policy stance” in their statements reflects a decisive pivot towards tightening

Despite Powell's clarification following the phrasing change, there remains a deep-seated inclination to continue this trend of liquidity contractionHistorically, each time the Fed has embarked on a tightening phase, it has proved catastrophic for emerging marketsThis pattern is likely to persist until at least 2020, when markets will face persistent headwinds.

The Fed's reports have revised upward their growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019 while reinforcing expectations of additional hikes in DecemberProjections suggest three rate hikes for the following year, alongside one for 2020. With a clear and consistent path for rate increases laid out, it implies that only after 2020 might we approach normalization of interest rates in the U.S.

The brilliance of the Federal Reserve lies in its strategic timing of rate increases amidst robust economic growthOnce aligned at normal rates, should the economy encounter unforeseen downturns, the Fed retains the flexibility to significantly lower rates to stimulate respective economic sectors